I studied computer science from 2009-2013, received my Bachelors in Science with Honors, then soon after I did my Ph.D. in a niche form of artificial intelligence from 2015-2019. Then I did a couple of postdocs, applying AI to various problems (genomics, satellite imagery, evolution, video games), then I started as a data scientist at the University of Michigan, right at the start of the GenAI boom. I helped bring GenAI to disparate fields of research, I warned researchers of the myriad dangers of LLMs: from use in medicine, to environmental impact, to intellectual property and plagiarism concerns, to training data often stolen from artists without consent, to educational concerns both as teachers and for students using LLMs.
No one, however, is an expert in all of AI. My Ph.D. is in a niche field of AI, but I never studied generative AI during my studies - how could I? I finished my degrees long before ever hearing of ChatGPT.
I also work with AI, and still write research in the field, but ultimately I'm just another fish in a massive pond. So with my background out of the way, you know I have some, but not all, context.
So, say someone posts a screenshot of ChatGPT and a stranger appears in the replies to inform them, with great moral certainty, that every query they send is boiling another bottle of water and killing another tree. The message is usually delivered from an iPhone built on cobalt mined by children in the DRC, while a 4K Netflix stream plays in another tab. I find this ignorant and hypocritical, but I'm mostly irked that the argument is being made against the consumer of a product, rather than against the systems that produced it.
The "AI is destroying the planet" line is not exactly wrong, but it is badly aimed. The real story is more complicated, and the conclusion is different from what the standard outrage suggests. I want to lay out where I actually stand on this, with numbers attached.
Conclusion up front, so you can decide whether to bother with the rest: your guilt about the environmental and ethical cost of LLMs is justified, but it is being aimed at the wrong target. The industry has deliberately structured things so that your anxiety lands on your own fingertip hitting the query button, while the actual decision-makers (hyperscalers choosing fossil fuels, regulators choosing inaction, venture capital choosing scale over sustainability) stay invisible. BP ran the same playbook when it popularised the personal "carbon footprint" in the early 2000s: a PR campaign designed to shift blame for climate change away from corporate polluters and onto the everyday choices of consumers.[1]
Training costs in absolute dollars have grown. GPT-3 in 2020 cost around $4.6 million to train.[3] GPT-4 in 2023 cost somewhere between $63 million and $100 million.[2] The headline reads like a runaway curve.
Per-parameter cost is a crude proxy, but it's still a useful model. GPT-3 cost roughly $0.000026 per parameter. GPT-4, despite the eye-watering total, comes in at around $0.00005 per parameter for a model roughly ten times the size, multimodal across text, images, audio and video, with a 128k context window instead of GPT-3's 2k.[3] Parameters are not units of capability, especially under MoE (more on that below), so this is not a clean efficiency metric. Per benchmark point on standard evaluations, training has gotten cheaper, not more expensive.[3]
Two things drove that. First, the Chinchilla scaling laws (DeepMind, 2022) showed that almost every model in the field was undertrained, and that compute-optimal training wants about 20 tokens per parameter.[4] The field stopped bolting on more parameters and started feeding the models properly. Second, Mixture-of-Experts (see jargon section above) broke the link between total size and per-query cost. DeepSeek's V3/R1 reported around $5–6 million for the final training run on a 671B-parameter MoE model that holds its own against frontier reasoning models.[4] That figure is the marginal compute cost of the final run only; total programme cost (R&D, prior runs, salaries, infrastructure) is much higher. Even allowing for that, a 671B-parameter dense GPT-3-style model trained the old way would have cost hundreds of millions.
Capability per training dollar is going up, and the published literature is consistent on that.
The other thing the doom narrative misses is what has happened at the small end. Meta's Llama 3 8B was trained on 15 trillion tokens, 1,875 tokens per parameter, almost 100x the Chinchilla-optimal ratio. Alibaba's Qwen3-0.6B pushed it to 60,000:1.[4] The bet is to spend much more on training a small model so that inference, the part you pay for forever, is almost free.
The result is that I can sit at my desk with an Nvidia RTX 4090 (24 GB VRAM, around $1,600 new) and run a quantized Llama 3.1 70B locally. Offline. Private. No API key. No subscription. With a more modest 16 GB card like a 4070 Ti Super, you can comfortably run Phi-3 14B or Mixtral 8x7B. Even an 8 GB RTX 4060 will run Mistral 7B or Llama 3.1 8B at usable speeds.[5]
If you have a recent gaming PC, you already own infrastructure that would have been classed as a research-lab supercomputer in 2020. I have written about how I actually use this in my post on running a local LLM as a professional second brain. The point worth landing here is that the centralised, cloud-only, beg-OpenAI-for-access model of AI is not the only option, and it is increasingly not even the best one (security, costs, ethics, requires internet, etc.).
To be clear, I'm very much on team "let's not destroy our planet in exchange for Studio Ghibli Facebook profile pictures", but I'm also on team "let's not destroy our planet in exchange for doom-scrolling TikTok for 5 hours while bedrotting".
A single ChatGPT query uses somewhere between 0.001 and 0.01 kWh, emits roughly 0.7 to 4.3 grams of CO2, and consumes around 10 to 30 millilitres of water in datacenter cooling.[6][7][8] Those numbers are probably smaller than you thought - "a whole glass of water per query" is what I saw a lot on social media: exaggeration and lying cause short term gains to a movement but long term losses, so let's look at the real numbers.
For context, here is what one hour of various normal digital activities looks like:
| Activity | Energy | CO2 | Water |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 ChatGPT query | ~0.003 kWh | ~3 g | ~10–30 ml |
| 1 hour Netflix in HD/4K | ~0.077 kWh | ~34 g | 2–12 L |
| 1 hour Zoom call | N/A | N/A | ~1.7 L |
| 1 hour social media scrolling | N/A | N/A | ~430 ml |
| 15-mile car commute | N/A | ~6,000 g | N/A |
Sources: Bowdoin College energy brief (2025),[6] JISC National Centre for AI (May 2025),[7] Online Learning Consortium (2025).[8] Ranges are wide because they depend on hardware, location and grid mix. One caveat on the comparison: the ChatGPT figure covers data center cooling only, while the Zoom and Netflix figures include user device power and network overhead. The boundaries are not identical, and a heavy LLM session (agentic loops, long reasoning chains, image generation) can run hundreds of queries per hour. The point is that a casual ChatGPT exchange is not the carbon villain it is made out to be, not that all AI use is small.
An hour of HD streaming uses the energy of roughly 26 casual ChatGPT exchanges. A one-hour Zoom call uses more cooling water than around 50 of them.[7] Nobody is being scolded online for joining a Zoom or finishing a Netflix series. The outrage is highly specific to one technology, and it does not track the actual numbers.
Training a frontier model is expensive. GPT-3's training emitted about 500 metric tons of CO2, roughly the annual emissions of 110 average US passenger cars.[9] That is a real cost, but a one-time cost, amortised over hundreds of millions of users and billions of queries, and it is dwarfed within weeks by the operational footprint of, say, global TikTok consumption.
The hidden hypocrisy is the hardware in your hand. The phone you are holding while you tweet about boycotting ChatGPT contains lithium, rare earths, and cobalt. A lot of that cobalt comes from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, much of it mined under conditions Siddharth Kara documented in Cobalt Red (artisanal mining, child labour, almost no safety equipment, rivers running orange, slave labor).[11] Those mines feed the batteries in your phone, your laptop, your earbuds, and the GPU clusters AI runs on.
Embodied carbon is a much bigger part of the story than most coverage admits. Gupta et al. (Chasing Carbon, IEEE Micro 2021) showed that as facilities run on cleaner electricity, manufacturing the servers approaches and can exceed operational emissions over the device lifetime: as you decarbonise the grid, the ratio swings further toward embodied. On a dirty grid (40% gas, 15% coal) operational emissions still dominate, which is why grid composition (covered later in this post) still matters. The same logic applies to consumer hardware: estimates put the renewal of AI processors and consumer electronics at up to 2.5 million tonnes of e-waste a year by 2030, roughly the mass of 13 billion iPhone 15 Pros. Currently we recycle about 12.5% of it.[10]
I am not arguing that two wrongs make a right. I am arguing that the application of a moral argument used to criticise AI should also condemn the device you used to type the criticism. Further, I am arguing that the focus should be on systemic issues (why is your phone made from slave labor in the first place?) rather than blaming the individual for using a phone. The same goes for AI.
The counter to all of the above is the Jevons paradox, and I want to take it seriously because it is the strongest argument the doom side has.
William Stanley Jevons, in 1865, noticed that as steam engines became more efficient at burning coal, England burned more coal, not less.[12] Cheaper energy unlocked new uses, more industries adopted steam, and total consumption shot up despite per-engine efficiency. The pattern repeats: more efficient cars led to more driving. Cheaper LED lighting led to more lighting. Cheaper compute led to vastly more compute.
It applies to AI. As models get cheaper to run, demand expands to fill the new capacity.[13] Medical imaging is an instructive case. In 2016 Geoffrey Hinton famously suggested radiologists would soon be obsolete; the opposite happened. The number of radiologists has grown, and CT scan rates in US emergency rooms have roughly doubled over the last 15 years. AI is one of several factors making imaging cheaper and faster to interpret rather than the sole cause, but the broader pattern, that capacity-cheapening tech tends to expand demand rather than reduce it, holds.
The same pattern is showing up in software. When DeepSeek announced R1 in early 2025, the market wiped about $600 billion off Nvidia's valuation on the assumption that more efficient models would mean fewer chips needed. The valuation recovered. Cheaper inference unlocks agentic systems making thousands of recursive calls in the background. It unlocks LLMs embedded in operating systems, IDEs, search bars, browsers, every form field. Total inference is moving from billions of queries a day toward trillions.
So no, software efficiency alone will not save us. The 4-bit quantized 8B model on my desk is not a get-out-of-jail-free card. It just means more people will run more models more often. That is genuinely a problem the field has to confront.
But notice this does not land on "the individual user is the villain" -- it lands on the underlying physical infrastructure: the grid, the cooling, the silicon supply chain. We have to raise a stink about that infrastructure.
Telling people not to use LLMs on environmental grounds is, very often, a position only available to people who don't need them.
About 92% of low-income Americans, roughly 36 million people, cannot afford a lawyer for civil matters.[14] They are routinely facing landlords, debt collectors and employers who can. An LLM that helps a pro se litigant fill in housing-defence paperwork correctly is not a luxury. The Suffolk LIT Lab and Legal Aid of Eastern Missouri are already using LLMs to streamline legal-aid intake.[15] The rAInbow chatbot helps domestic-abuse survivors understand the legal protections available to them.[14] The early standalone "AI lawyer" products (DoNotPay being the obvious example, which paid an FTC settlement in 2024 over deceptive marketing) are not the case I am making here. The case is for LLMs as scaffolding inside properly-supervised legal-aid workflows.
The medical case is at least as strong. The WHO projects a global shortage of around 11 million health workers by 2030, mostly in low- and middle-income countries, where roughly 8 million people die every year from treatable conditions due to under-resourced triage.[16] Penda Health in Nairobi has integrated an LLM-based decision-support tool into its records system to reduce diagnostic errors. PROMPTS, also in Kenya, uses AI over SMS to coach expectant mothers on birth preparedness.[16] In the US, AI text-message interventions are being used in Diabetes Self-Management Education programs that were previously too expensive to deliver at scale.[17] And translation alone, the simple ability for someone with limited English to get a clear plain-language explanation of a diagnosis, makes a real difference for people who would otherwise nod along without understanding.[17]
Then there's education. Trainee doctors at well-funded medical schools are using premium LLMs to map out diagnostic reasoning. If we tell students at underfunded institutions they shouldn't use the same tools, we have built what some researchers (correctly, I think) call epistemic exclusion: the rich keep the cognitive support, the poor are told it would be unethical of them to take it.[18][19]
The pattern repeats everywhere. Wealthy law firms will burn through API tokens and will not feel one ounce of guilt about it. Tech executives will continue to use these tools to widen their advantage. If a single mum studying nursing part-time, or an immigrant trying to write a tenancy complaint, or a teenager on free school meals trying to understand calculus is told using AI is unethical, they pay for the sins of others. It's like blaming the family on a tight budget for grabbing a plastic carrier bag at the checkout, or for buying the cheap supermarket burger because that's what fits the weekly shop, instead of blaming the supermarkets churning out billions of single-use bags and the industrial meat suppliers behind the cheap mince. Reusable bags and vegan groceries are great if you can afford the time, money and nearby shops to make them work; for a lot of people they aren't a real choice, and the moral weight belongs upstream with the corporations that designed the system, not with the person at the till.
I am not suggesting using AI for medical or legal purposes. I'm pointing out that people do every single day because they have no alternatives. Saying they shouldn't doesn't change that they do.
If you care about marginalised communities, the move is to push them toward locally-run open-source models like Llama, Mistral and Phi, not to talk them out of the technology entirely. They get the benefits, and the centralised cloud bill goes elsewhere. Or even a "library" type solution where communities can access local LMs on more powerful machines remotely (from phone apps, or even library computers) without the need to afford a modern gaming PC. We also need smaller, more powerful models, to open accessibility, so these models CAN run on people's phones and 5 year old 3rd hand laptops.
The problem is the infrastructure layer, and it is mostly a regulation problem.
Data centers used 1–2% of global electricity in 2024. The IEA expects this to more than double by 2030, exceeding 1,000 TWh.[20] In the US specifically, data center consumption is projected to roughly double from 183 TWh in 2024 to around 426 TWh by 2030.[25] That is real load, on a real grid, and it is being added faster than zero-carbon supply.
Three things are going wrong simultaneously, and they are all fixable by policy rather than by yelling at end users.
1. Tax breaks without strings. States are still bidding against each other to attract data centers with sweeping tax incentives, and almost none of those deals require "renewable additionality": a clause that says the data center must fund new clean energy capacity, not just plug into the existing grid and let residential rates rise to cover the upgrades.[21] Singapore, Amsterdam and Dublin have moratoria and stricter performance rules. Germany has legislated efficiency requirements. New York, as of 2025, requires registration for data centers over 500 kW.[22] Most of the US still doesn't.
2. Cooling is stuck in the 1990s. Cooling is up to 50% of data center energy. Most of it is air cooling, where air handlers chill huge rooms and evaporative towers throw freshwater into the sky (around 80% of the freshwater drawn evaporates).[22] Direct-to-chip liquid cooling, where coolant runs in a closed loop over the actual hot silicon, is a much better answer. Microsoft published a Nature life-cycle assessment showing that switching from air to cold-plate cooling cuts greenhouse emissions by 15–21%, total energy demand by 15–20%, and "blue water" use by 30–52% over a facility's lifetime.[23] The technology exists, we just don't make companies use it, while incentivizing them to continue full steam (pun intended) ahead.
3. The grid is dirty. Around 40% of data center electricity globally comes from natural gas, with another 15% from coal.[20] Goldman Sachs estimates 60% of new data center demand over the next decade will be met by burning fossil fuels, adding roughly 220 million tonnes of CO2.[25] Renewables alone won't fix this, because data centers run 24/7 and grid-scale battery storage isn't there yet. The answer for baseload is nuclear, and right now we are watching it happen the wrong way. Microsoft is restarting Three Mile Island under a private 20-year power purchase agreement. Amazon is co-locating Small Modular Reactors with Dominion Energy next to its Virginia campuses. Michigan's Palisades plant is restarting in 2026 backed by a $1.52 billion DOE Loan Programs Office guarantee to a private operator, Holtec.[24] Hyperscalers get the megawatts; the public gets the construction risk and the long-term liability. The US target of quadrupling nuclear capacity from 100 GW to 400 GW by 2050 is the right scale, but ownership matters. Nuclear built by public utilities, sold at a regulated rate to whoever needs it, would serve the people paying for it, while nuclear built behind a hyperscaler's fence does not.
I know "support nuclear" is awkward in environmental circles, so I'll be plain. The problem with renewables as a sole solution is intermittency: when the wind drops or the sky clouds over, something has to fill in, and at present that something is almost always gas. Nuclear runs at full capacity around the clock regardless of weather. Its lifecycle carbon footprint, including mining, construction, and decommissioning, is comparable to wind and to utility-scale solar (IPCC AR6 medians: nuclear ~12 gCO2/kWh, onshore wind ~11, utility solar PV ~48; rooftop solar in sunny grids can come in lower).[26] Measured per unit of energy produced, nuclear kills fewer people than any fossil fuel by orders of magnitude, mostly because it produces no air pollution.[27] One uranium fuel pellet the size of a fingertip carries the energy of a tonne of coal.[28] The waste is real, has to be managed, and is a legitimate concern, but it is small in volume and containable. Modern Gen III+/IV designs (AP1000, NuScale and similar SMRs) use passive safety: gravity, natural circulation, convection. They shut down on their own, without active intervention. Many of the reactors being restarted right now are older Gen II PWRs, so the "passively safe" claim applies most strongly to the new builds rather than the restarts. Chernobyl and Fukushima were older designs operating under conditions modern reactors are built to survive.[27] Opposing nuclear while accepting a grid that burns coal is not a coherent environmental position. Opposing private hyperscaler nuclear, and demanding public nuclear instead, is.
All of this needs legislators to do their jobs and to keep the resulting capacity in public hands. Your guilt shouldn't be about hitting a button, it should be about what you're doing about the people who decided to build this infrastructure, on this grid, with these incentives, and who is profiting while you carry the moral weight.
I've spent enough of my career around the actual science, and around the scientists, to see a bit deeper into the systemic issues and propaganda blaming individuals, so I see the cartoon version of this debate just keeps eyes away from the increasing profits of oligarchs while real problems persist and worsen.
The cartoon "AI is going to save us" pitch is rubbish. There are real costs, real bias, real labour issues, real water and grid concerns, and a real Jevons trap that means efficiency alone won't bail us out.
The cartoon "using ChatGPT is killing the planet" pitch is also rubbish, and it is the more harmful of the two, because it is aimed at the people with the least leverage. It lets the actual decision-makers (utilities, regulators, hyperscaler procurement teams, planning boards) off the hook, and it tells the people who would benefit most from these tools that they are bad people for using them.
If you genuinely care about the environmental cost of AI, here is the move:
No. The piece argues for local open-source models, mandatory liquid cooling, renewable additionality clauses on data center subsidies, and a faster nuclear buildout. That is the opposite of "leave the hyperscalers alone." It just refuses to make individual users the villain. I'd love if AI infrastructure became a public service.
Real, separate, and worth their own posts. This one is specifically about the energy/access framing because that is where the public discourse keeps getting the numbers wrong. Bias in training data and copyright in scraped corpora are different fights, and both matter.
Roughly 10–30 ml per ChatGPT query, based on the Bowdoin and JISC summaries. You'd need around 50 queries to match the cooling water of a single one-hour Zoom call. Training is much heavier (GPT-3 emitted about 500 t CO2 to train), but that is a one-off cost amortised over hundreds of millions of users, a bit like comparing the cost of building a bridge vs the cost of maintaining it.
A 16 GB card (like a 4070 Ti Super) is the sweet spot for hobbyist use; it'll run quantized Phi-3 14B or Mixtral 8x7B comfortably. A 24 GB card (4090 or similar) will run a 4-bit quantized Llama 3.1 70B and is genuinely useful for serious work. 8 GB cards will get you 7B/8B models, which are still surprisingly good.
Because data centers need 24/7 zero-carbon baseload, and renewables plus current battery storage cannot supply that at the scale needed. Nuclear is the only technology with the track record and the energy density to do it. Modern designs (SMRs, Gen III+/IV) handle most of the legitimate concerns about older plants (according to what I've read, I'm not an expert in this area). The alternative, which is what we're doing now, is gas. The caveat: I'm pro public nuclear. Letting hyperscalers privatise restarted reactors and SMRs while the public underwrites the risk is not the answer. Public utilities, regulated rates, public ownership.